So what happens if you are only able to make the correct lure presentation an average of 25% of your casts? \u00a0If you only have time to make one cast at each of the 13 docks, then that means you will only make the right presentation at 3 of the docks (13\u00a0x .25\u00a0= 3.25). \u00a0I used a random number selector in order to randomly select 3 of the 13 docks. \u00a0The docks you made an accurate presentation to are represented by a purple dot on the shoreline below the dock. \u00a0You managed to catch 3 fish. \u00a0Not bad. \u00a0Also, right now all we are concerned with is numbers of fish, not size.<\/p>\n Ok, so what happens if we increase (double) your ability to make the correct\u00a0presentation to 50% of the time? \u00a0That means you will be able to make the right presentation at 6 docks (13 x .5 = 6.5). \u00a0Once again, I used a random number selector to select 6 docks. \u00a0You caught 5 fish this time. \u00a0Not bad at all. \u00a0Certainly an increase from the 3 fish you caught before, and shoot, if you were in a tournament, you’ve got a limit this time!<\/p>\n Let’s step it up another notch and increase our ability to make the correct presentation to 90% of the time. \u00a0That means we will make the correct presentation to 11 of the 13 docks (13 x .9 = 11.7). \u00a0Count ’em up. \u00a0Boom, we caught 9 fish this time. \u00a0That’s three times as many fish as we caught when we were only making the correct presentation 25% of the time. \u00a0You get the idea…<\/p>\n Ok, now, let’s look at things just a little bit differently this time. \u00a0Let’s stick with the idea that you only have time to make 13 casts, however, if you catch a fish on a certain dock, you are going to make another cast at it to see if you can catch another one. \u00a0And just for fun, let’s randomly switch our percentage dots around on the shoreline.<\/p>\n This one took a lot more brain power to think through. \u00a0Ha! \u00a0Ok, so to be clear, a percentage dot on the shore indicates that you made an accurate presentation for one cast. \u00a0Also, for this scenario, we are going to assume that when we start fishing, we start at the dock on the left and move to the next dock to the right when we make a cast that fails to yield a fish.<\/p>\n Let’s look at how many fish we catch if we are successful at making an accurate presentation for 3 of our 13 casts (25%). \u00a0I’ll walk you through it because this one gets a little tricky. \u00a0On the first dock, we make an accurate presentation on our first cast and catch a fish, so we cast at the dock again. \u00a0However, the next cast is not a correct presentation, so we fail to catch a fish and move to the next dock. \u00a0Notice, there is a 2nd fish at the first dock that can be caught, but since our second cast didn’t have the correct lure presentation, we didn’t catch it, so we moved on. \u00a0At the next dock, we make an accurate presentation, catch a fish, and cast at the dock again. \u00a0Once again, our second cast to the dock is an inaccurate presentation, however, this time there’s no fish there to be caught, so it doesn’t hurt us that bad. \u00a0As we move on, we fail to make an accurate presentation\u00a0on docks 3-10. \u00a0That brings our total up to 12 casts. \u00a0We have time for one more cast, and we make the last one count with an accurate presentation on dock 11 and catch a fish. \u00a0Congrats, you caught 3 fish while having a 25% correct lure presentation rate.<\/p>\n Ok, hopefully you get the idea of how this scenario works after walking through the first one. \u00a0Let’s look and see what we catch when we are able to present the lure correctly 50% of the time. \u00a0Once again, start at the dock on the left. \u00a0The orange dots represent the times we were able to make the correct presentation. \u00a0Docks 1 and 2 we fail to make correct presentations. \u00a0Dock 3, we make the correct presentation, but unfortunately there isn’t a fish there. \u00a0Dock 4, correct presentation, catch a fish, make another correct presentation, but no more fish to catch, so we move on. \u00a0Dock 5, incorrect presentation, move on. \u00a0Dock 6, correct presentation, catch a fish, make another cast, but it’s not a correct presentation, no fish, move on. \u00a0Bummer, there’s a bunch of fish on dock 6. \u00a0Oh well. \u00a0Blah, blah, blah…. keep moving on and when all is said and done we manage to catch 4 fish with our 50% correct lure presentation rate. \u00a0That’s just one more fish than our 25% rate this time, but hey, that’s still one more fish.<\/p>\n Moving on to 90%. \u00a0Hopefully you can walk through it in your head after the first couple of examples, so I’ll skip the walk through. \u00a0When we bump it up to 90%, we catch 8 fish. \u00a0I’d say 8 fish is significantly more than the 3 we caught with only a 25% correct lure presentation rate.<\/p>\n Let’s create a bit of a new scenario this time. \u00a0What if you don’t really care about catching as many fish as possible?Let’s say that you are fishing in a tournament. \u00a0You are only looking for 5 fish\u00a0and you are thinking you need to catch 5 fish all over 3 pounds in order to win, so you tie on a jig and start fishing these docks. \u00a0We’ll get rid of our time limitations for this scenario and say it’s the beginning of our day, so we have plenty of time to fish these 13 docks no problem. \u00a0Once again though, we will say that if we catch a fish, we are going to make another cast at the dock. \u00a0We’re also going to randomize it slightly differently. \u00a0Our correct lure presentation rates are an average throughout the whole tournament day, so these 13 docks are just a snapshot of our day. \u00a0We are going to say that on each cast, we have either a 25, 50, or 90% chance of making the correct presentation, so we likely won’t be looking at the same numbers of dots as we did in our other scenarios. \u00a0Here’s what the illustration ends up looking like: Now again, for this one, the only fish dots we are looking at are the GREEN and BLUE dots since they are fish that are over 3 pounds and are more likely to eat that nice big jig we are using. \u00a0We will assume the smaller red dot fish don’t want anything to do with our jig.<\/p>\n Ok, 25% correct presentation rate. \u00a0Again, each cast we have a 25% chance of getting the right presentation, and if we catch a fish, we are casting at the dock again… no fish and we go to the next dock. \u00a0Dock 1, accurate presentation, catch a 3+ pounder, make\u00a0another\u00a0<\/em>accurate presentation, but no more 3 pounders to catch. \u00a0Dock 2, bad presentation, move on. \u00a0Dock 3, accurate presentation, but no fish. \u00a0Blah, blah, blah… what do we end up with? \u00a0We caught 3 fish all over 3 pounds. \u00a0Decent. \u00a0What happens with 50% and 90%?<\/p>\n 50% = 4 bass over 3 pounds<\/p>\n 90% = 5 bass over 3 pounds… Plus the 10+ pound kicker! \u00a0You win the tournament!<\/p>\n See how that works? \u00a0Cool huh?<\/p>\n Last scenario I’m gonna throw out there. \u00a0This is basically the same scenario as the tournament deal, but instead of looking for 3+ pounders, we are a big bass hunter. \u00a0All we are interested in is getting that GIANT. \u00a0We are headed out throwing nothing but giant swimbaits all day looking for Big Bertha. \u00a0She’s that lone blue dot on dock 8. \u00a0Let’s see what happens…<\/p>\n![\"Catch](\"http:\/\/andermeine.com\/new\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Catch-that-fish-1024x425.png\")
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